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Monday, 09 February 2009

  • Late-night thoughts on the politics & the economy

    * I can't help but interpret Republican opposition to the Obama stimulus plan as a very pessimistic bet against the economy. In doing this, the Republicans are putting a lot of credibility on the line. The stimulus package is the central political piece of Obama's broader recovery plan. If Repulicans continue to battle it out and get run over by the Democratic majorities, they better hope that the economy doesn't recover in the next few election cycles. If times get better, the Republican Party will be remembered as bunch of do-nothings that wrecked the economy, and then watched from the sidelines while Democrats fixed it.

     

    * The Republicans are right about one thing -- any time you get a spending package this large there will be a considerable amount of waste. I just wish they would spend their time sorting through proposals to help eliminate waste instead of opposing those programs outright. I would use this as an analogy: everyone hates seeing highway construction workers wasting time standing around while they're being paid with taxpayers dollars. That doesn't mean we should stop building highways. It means we need to improve oversight. Republicans should be playing a watchdog role right now since they are the opposition party. They are not the governing party. They are not going to get the kind of tax cuts they want.

     

    * Like the Republicans, I'm still wary of taking on huge amounts of national debt. But I get annoyed when they talk about spending like it's the only way to increase the debt. Cutting taxes also increases the debt. They should know. They've done a lot of it over the past eight years.

     

    * I'm impressed with this new approach to the TARP program. Guaranteeing private money should get a lot more bang for the buck than purchasing toxic securities outright. It's a somewhat technical issue, but repairing banks' balance sheets is probably the most critical problem in restoring our short-term economic prospects. I am still very interested to see how Obama approaches the longer-term issue of trade imbalances.

     

    * I don't buy the argument that we need exorbitant salaries for bank executives. Temporarily limiting their pay will not destroy American finance. The only executives we lose through compensation limits will be the hot-headed risk takers that got us into this mess to begin with. I believe you can attract smart, seasoned, and ambitious executives with a sense of history to steward these banks without paying them anything at all.

     

    * Older, accomplished executives have a chance to establish a legacy in these rough times and young upstarts looking for a chance to establish a reputation still have no better place to look than Wall Street. The social-climbing money grabbers can make their way over to Hollywood or wherever else they think they can make a quick buck. I say good riddance.

Thursday, 18 December 2008

  • Roots

    Every time I come to Korea, my grandfather likes to do this exercise where we look at my clan's family lineage books and he points out my various relatives and what they're up to, along with stories about his father, his grandfather, his grandfather's brothers, and so on.
     
    This time my grandfather made photocopies of the books in order to streamline so we could just look at our family without having to filter through our distant relatives. It occurred to me that the line had to start somewhere, however, and that all of these names had to trace back to a single person, so I flipped to the back of the photocopies and asked my grandfather about the first name on the list.
     
    Apparently the millions of people in these books are descended from a man named Kim Alji (김알지, 金閼智) who lived 3,000 years ago in the Shilla dynasty and was hatched from an egg.
     
    You can see my clan's webpage, but only in Korean.
     
     
    Also there is a wikipedia article on Mr. Kim.
     

Tuesday, 09 December 2008

  • More story fragment exercise

    Grace Hwang poured her life into her job as a mergers and acquisitions banker at J.P. Morgan. She loved her job. She loved pushing deals and the presence of power she felt flowing through her as she walked into the office on Park Avenue every morning.

     

    She knew she was up for promotion and could feel herself moving through the fast track after a few short years as an assistant vice president. And although she didn't really have time for a social life, she did go out and get plastered as often as possible with her hard-charging co-workers and some of her friends from college back in Boston. Sometimes she woke up with strange men in her bed, but nobody she couldn't kick out by the time she had to get back to work.

     

    Grace had a pretty good life. The only moments that really bothered her were the silent seconds when she would catch herself daydreaming about her father.

     

    She didn't have any memory of her father. She had some pictures of him and her mother, holding her in their hands. She had kept his pictures in scrapbooks as a kid when her mother stacked them away. Her mom was a practical woman who wouldn't keep useless sentimental stuff around the house.

     

    One morning, Grace had dream about her father. He was soft and warm, but didn't speak. He held her in his arms and rocked gently with her and her mother whose hardened, stern face had returned to the youthful charm she'd seen in pictures.

     

    It was similar to dreams she'd had before, and she understood why she woke up with tears in her eyes, but she wished she didn't.

     

    Grace woke her mother in the ungodly hours of the morning to call her and talk about the dream. Mrs. Hwang asked her to close her eyes and make a prayer with her:

     

    Heavenly father, please help my Grace whose heart is burdened.

    Open her heart to the spirit of your salvation and ease her pain.

    Bless Grace so that she may seek your protection from the evils in life.

    Let her seek your wisdom and mercy so that she may enter your kingdom.

    Bring us together so that we may join her father in your house.

    In Jesus' name we pray.

    Amen.

     

    She didn't really believe in it, but Grace gave her amen and wiped her face. She thanked her mother and jumped into the shower, where searing beads of water stripped her guilt and her weakness away into the sharper, cleaner, professional woman that she was more comfortable with.

     

    Grace walked out the door a different person from the one who woke up fighting off tears. And she was ready take on another day.

Sunday, 07 December 2008

  • Paul Volcker Watch

    Obama's creation of an Economic Recovery Advisory Board for Paul Volcker begs the question: will Volcker speak out to disagree with the president-elect? I'm sure that Volcker is skeptical of the auto industry bailout and the stimulus plan. These plans would pile on the national debt, build inflationary pressure, and severely undermine the U.S. dollar.

    There has never been a sustained speculative attack on the American currency, but it would be foolish to think it will never happen. If such an attack takes place, the necessary response and the economic impact will be much deeper than Volcker's shock therapy in 1979.

    Don't think it's possible? Just look at the government's balance sheet:

    American national debt stands at $10.7 trillion now. Add $700 billion for the TARP, $300 billion for the auto industry bailout and another $300-$400 billion for the stimulus plan. Then factor in the normal budget deficit, plus the cost of running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and all of the new gimmes that the Democratic Congress will expect. That's the liabilities side. What's on the assets side you ask? Toxic home mortgage securities, investments in some shaky investment banks, loans to a dying auto industry, and maybe a few new roads and bridges.

    Ben Bernanke will be in a very weak position if the dollar comes under attack, considering how overstretched the Fed has already become. It's hard to foresee how the Fed and the White House would respond to such a situation and what the effects on the economy would be -- other than to say that any such scenario would be extremely painful.

    I would urge the Obama administration to swallow the pill and take the recession now instead of piling on the national debt. Delaying the pain could mean a much worse crisis down the road. I suspect Mr. Volcker is also thinking along these lines. I hope he will let us know what's on his mind sooner rather than later.

Wednesday, 03 December 2008

  • Being redundant

    But I figure that's ok. Here are some pictures from my trip to Vienna that I already posted to facebook, but I figure I might as well add here too. My current client is a fund of funds which runs its back office operations in Vienna, which is why I had to travel there.

    The experience as a whole was fun, of course. Last time we went (in April) we got to travel around a bit. This time things aren't so good and the client is much more conscious about containing costs. We didn't get to see anything and we worked 12-16 hours a day for eight days straight. Flying business class is always a pleasure though, and people treat you nicely when you put down a corporate card and tip well on the company's dime.

    Here are a few quirks that I captured on my blackberry.


    There were a bunch of Arabic channels at the Hilton in Vienna. I'm assuming this is because OPEC has its headquarters in Vienna. There aren't really any Arabs walking around on the streets. I caught a Korean drama dubbed in Arabic while flipping through channels at the hotel.


    PwC ad in the airport in Frankfurt, on our layover getting to Vienna.


    Lufthansa's menu. I've only flown Lufthansa business class, so I dunno about their coach menu, but the food I've had on my flights with them has been excellent. Lufthansa also has a really good playlist of Korean music. So far all of the female flight attendants that I've gotten have been blondes. Several of them referred to me as "Mr. Kim" without my having introduced myself, which was nice.

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